By Sanriel Chris Ajero

A quick take on the yearly tradition. Just for fun, yes. Too bad I won’t be able to catch the ceremony live.

Best Motion Picture:

We all know that this is a two-way fight between The Social Network and The King’s Speech. The other 8 should be happy to just be nominated and take the nominations as rightful reward. Interestingly, the race for the Best Picture has completely turned upside down the last month. Despite the year-long buzz, the towering praises, the countless year-end mentions and winning almost all Best Picture awards prior to the Guilds, it seems inevitable that Fincher’s The Social Network will bow down to the King.

THE KING’S SPEECH

PROS:
- Most obvious indicators are the guilds – as The King’s Speech swept all the precursor guild trophies including DGA, PGA and SAG.
- It is, thematically and aesthetically, the stuff Academy members die for.
- Academy members lust over period costume dramas, especially ones propelled by great acting ensembles.
- If they go the conventional path (which they almost always do), The King’s Speech has this category in the bag. – Has the most number of nominations.
- The power of the Weinsteins.

CONS:
- The Social Network
- Losing all the precursors prior to the guilds might signify the lack of support from critics and other groups.

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THE SOCIAL NETWORK

PROS:
- One of the best reviewed films of the year
- Has been reigning the awards tally since the precursor awards started third quarter of last year.
- Still has the Golden Globe Best Picture win

CONS:
- Lost the Guilds (DGA, PGA, SAG) to The King’s Speech
- Lost the BAFTA as well.
- May not be the typical Best Picture choice for the Academy members.

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WILL WIN: The King’s Speech
ALTERNATE: The Social Network

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Achievement in Directing:

Almost 90% of the time, the Directors Guild winner (in this case Tom Hooper of The King’s Speech) eventually gets the Academy Award for Best Director. It is easy to just draft Tom Hooper as the winner in this category but the race is extra special this year. Something tells me that the remaining 10% might include this year. And it breaks my heart to just let this year pass without rewarding the rightful winner (well, it’s really just between the two anyway). So I’m betting on a David Fincher win in Best Director.

DAVID FINCHER, The Social Network

PROS:
- Has been nominated before.
- The Social Network, alongside his previous films, are impressive achievements in directing.
- They could reward him from his impressive body of work (well, always in contrast to Tom Hooper)
- Snubbed many times before, and the Academy might feel the need to reward.

CONS:
- The King’s Speech and its expected Best Picture win
- Tom Hooper could easily be tagged along when a sweep occurs

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TOM HOOPER, The King’s Speech

PROS:
- That 90% of the time is a really huge indicator, almost always works
- The film may be destined for a sweep in many categories, especially Best Picture
- He and his film peaked at the perfect time and has the momentum to go all the way for the slay

CONS:
- Least known from the five nominated directors
- This is his first film to ever garner anything close to an Oscar buzz.

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WILL WIN: David Fincher, The Social Network
ALTERNATE: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech

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Performance by an actor in a leading role

This is probably the easiest category to predict this year. We all know it is the king’s year, so Colin Firth has this in the bag. Surely, we got breakthrough performances from the two young actors just trailing behind him, Jesse Eisenberg for The Social Network and James Franco for 127 Hours, but the precursor awards all seem to be in agreement in hailing Firth as the performance of the year. No question, no room for mistake here.

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COLIN FIRTH, The King’s Speech

PROS:
- Has won most Best Actor trophies over the awards season, including the big ones like Golden Globes, SAG and BAFTA. Next stop is the Oscars. No stopping him.
- Lost last year for his beautiful performance in A Single Man, and the Academy does not forget that easily.
- He’s British, and they somehow fancy a lot of them.
- The nomination list this year is filled with either young actors (Franco and Eisenberg) or past winners (Bridges and Bardem), so he’ll easily take this one.
- The King’s Speech sweep.

CONS:
- Nothing, really. Probably if the Academy miraculously loves The Social Network and decided for a sweep.
- Or if the Academy decides to reward their host a trophy.

Won’t dwell on the other nominees ‘cause Firth’s not losing this.

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WILL WIN: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
ALTERNATE: Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
UPSET: James Franco, 127 Hours

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Performance by an actress in a leading role

Late last year, this was the toughest category to crack. With Bening and Portman clashing for the win, it was clearly anybody’s game. But as the new year unfolded and more indicative award-giving bodies revealed their choices, the race gradually, and quite clearly, tipped into Portman’s favor.

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NATALIE PORTMAN, Black Swan

PROS:
- She has won the much-needed precursor awards, including the Golden Globe and SAG.
- A showy role that literally transformed, kind of stuff the Academy loves
- She’s pregnant, yes, that seems to be quite a lucky charm.

CONS:
- Annette Bening, and she’s quite an institution

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ANNETTE BENING, The Kids Are All Right

PROS:
- Extremely overdue.
- Has lost twice to Hilary Swank and the Academy might feel it’s time to reward her

CONS:
- Fact still remains that Portman snatched almost all precursor awards
- Fact still remains that Kids is nothing but a Sundance indie

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WILL WIN: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
ALTERNATE: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right

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Performance by an actor in a supporting role

All awards-season long, this category title has been affixed to Christian Bale’s name and performance in The Fighter. However, sudden buzz seems to grow under Geoffrey Rush’s performance in The King’s Speech, especially now with the film’s supposed and expected sweep. Also a two-man competition now (as most of the categories), let’s break down some important points.

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CHRISTIAN BALE, The Fighter

PROS:
- Has won most, if not all precursor awards for this category, including Golden Globes and SAG
- Has the very definition of a showy role – loud character, physical defect, physical transformation, everything.
- Has been snubbed quite a number of times before

CONS:
- Sudden rush of Rush’s buzz
- Might be affected and get swept off in case of a The King’s Speech sweep
- Uhm, attitude problem?

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GEOFFREY RUSH, The King’s Speech

PROS:
- Gaining momentum with perfect timing
- Won BAFTA for the same category
- A well-respected actor in the industry
- Some even go as far as saying the film is nothing with his performance (I personally agree)

CONS:
- Has won already for Shine
- Only has BAFTA trophy (which favors British films anyway)
- Christian Bale wining everything
- Too late for the buzz?

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WILL WIN: Christian Bale, The Fighter
ALTERNATE: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

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Performance by an actress in a supporting role

Also turning out to be an interesting match is the then-predictable Best Supporting Actress race. Over the whole of the Oscar season, we’ve heard nothing but Melissa Leo’s name being conferred with this title. Recent turn of events, including the misplacement of the young Hailee Steinfeld in this category, have suddenly stirred the competition. Right now, it’s a head-to-head battle between Leo and Steinfeld; and as I’m typing this, I’m still unsure of my pick. But as much as I love True Grit (my favorite from the 10 picture nominees), I might have to go with Leon this time.

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MELISSA LEO, The Fighter

PROS:
- Has won almost all precursor trophies including SAG and the Globes
- The Fighter seems to have the Academy’s support with its many nods, including almost the entire cast in the acting category. It is likely they get a couple of acting trophies, this one included.
- Lost two years ago for Frozen River, this might be her chance

CONS:
- Hailee Steinfeld’s sudden outpour of support
- THE controversy that happened in time for the voting period
- The two ladies of The Fighter, both nominated here, might split the votes and give way to Steinfeld.

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HAILEE STEINFELD, True Grit

PROS:
- Buzz steaming at the right time
- People are claiming she did a lead and huge performance, and this gives her an edge over other nominees

CONS:
- Hailee-who?
- She’s too young and no one has heard of her prior to this film
- Some say she’s at the wrong category
- Melissa Leo dominating the entire season

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WILL WIN: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
ALTERNATE: Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit

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Other categories I will predict, but not in a fashion as elaborate as the major awards above. Here’s a quick rundown of the rest of my predictions.

Original screenplay
Winner: David Seidler, The King’s Speech
Alternate: Scott Silver, The Fighter

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Adapted screenplay
Winner: Aaron Sorkin, The Social Network
Alternate: Joel and Ethan Coen, True Grit

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Original score
This pains me a lot, but knowing the Academy’s taste for scoring,
Winner: Alexandre Desplat, The King’s Speech
Alternate: Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross, The Social Network

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Original song
Winner: We Belong Together, Toy Story 3
Alternate: I See the Light, Tangled

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Best animated feature film
However much I love The Illusionist, I know it stands no chance at winning an Oscar.
Winner: Toy Story 3
Alternate: How to Train Your Dragon

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Art Direction
Winner: The King’s Speech
Alternate: Alice in Wonderland

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Achievement in Cinematography
Oh please give him this already.
Winner: Roger Deakins, True Grit
Alternate: Jeff Cronenweth, The Social Network

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Achievement in costume design
Winner: The King’s Speech
Alternate: Alice in Wonderland

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Achievement in makeup
Winner: The Wolfman
Alternate: Barney’s Version

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Achievement in sound editing
This and the next award I have no idea how they judge, or what they look for. Just a wild guess, yes.
Winner: Inception
Alternate: Toy Story 3

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Achievement in sound mixing
Winner: The Social Network
Alternate: Inception

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Achievement in visual effects
Winner: Inception
Alternate: Alice in Wonderland

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Best documentary feature
Oh Banksy, I’m sorry.
Winner: Inside Job
Alternate: Restrepo

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Best documentary short subject
I haven’t seen any of these so a wild guess.
Winner: Killing in the Name
Alternate: The Warriors of Qiugang

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Achievement in film editing
If justice will be served,
Winner: The Social Network
Alternate: The King’s Speech

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Best foreign language film
My favourite category but yearly has proven to be one of the toughest to predict. They almost always get this wrong. I liked Dogtooth so it’s not winning this. In a Better World won the Globes so it’s not winning this. Incendies, I have not seen but from one of my favourite directors working today so I’m not sure if the Academy would like that. I’d go for the safe choice. Given the Best Actor recognition for Javier Bardem, seems like it’s poised to win this one.
Winner: Biutiful
Alternate: Incendies

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Best animated short film
I’ve seen only two from the list and,
Winner: Day & Night
Alternate: Madagascar, carnet de voyage (Madagascar, a Journey Diary)

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Best Live Action Short Film
Have not seen any of these so I’m guessing
Winner: Wish 143
Alternate: The Crush

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So there. Be sure to catch the Oscars, Feb 28, 2011 8ish AM Manila time.